Wednesday, July 29, 2009

There is nothing more misleading than facts with no context

I have read an excellent article the other day about the value of good analysis, and the pitfalls of the bad. It researches WSJ's claim that increasing taxes on the people in the highest income bracket in Maryland led to their flight to other places within a year. It did not take into account any national trends of wealth and income, or any other measures "the rich" may take to lower their tax base (munis anyone?), and simple attributed the 50% decline in returns filed in the corresponding bucket to the fictional flight. However, a simple national trend analysis showed that Maryland was sitting close to the middle in terms of dynamics of wealthy households.

P.S. I put quotes around "the rich" because I believe the whole the rich vs the poor battle is pretty much made up, especially, on taxation. We all heard Warren Buffet advocating higher taxes for "the rich", and $40K-a-year Joe the Plumber being outraged by out of control taxes Democrats were allegedly ready to put into the law. My take, saying things like that makes Joes feel like they are one of the rich. Much like buying a Louis Vuitton bag with credit - not a particularly rational economic behavior, but what the heck, there was a time I was working for a company that successfully translated this behavior into a nice chunk of change, and studying it made a fascinating subject of research. But I digress.

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