Maximizing response often leads to poor campaign performance

I did some research for presentation at work today, and found this very nice white paper on the use of lift (as they call it, "uplift") modeling in driving true incremental sales. It correctly highlights the difference between correlation and causation, as response models simply correlate to propensity to buy, and incremental lift models track impact of marketing communication. Then it goes to explain the impact of segmentation on response and incremental sales, and I just loved those two charts showing how response is correlated to lift. Negatively, in their particular case. The higher the response, the lower the incremental sales. Actually, that's the conclusion that I often found in my own job. I am not saying it always happens, but it does happen often when we maximize response and focus solely on those who are likely to buy from us anyway. You should also watch the opposite end of the curve, where you have prospects so unlikely to purchase, that even though you do get high incrementality, it may still not be enough to pay for the program. Thus, your most profitable targets are usually in the sweet spot somewhere in the middle of the response curve. This is kind of article every direct marketer needs to read.
Generating Incremental Sales